fig8

Figure 8. Distance-band decomposition of SLX spatial spillovers. The upper panel jointly includes all three local BGS variables and their five distance-band spatial lags and corresponds to Table 13 and the main-text discussion. The lower panels estimate one local BGS variable and its five spatial lags at a time, assessing sensitivity to conditioning on the other BGS variables. All models control for income, urbanization and year fixed effects (N = 390 province-year observations from 30 provinces over 2012-2024). Error bars in the lower panels represent approximate 95% confidence intervals (estimate ± 1.96 province-clustered SE); dotted horizontal lines indicate the respective local coefficients (βlocal). ***P < 0.01, **P < 0.05, *P < 0.10. SLX: Spatially lagged X.